External validation of the Vascular Quality Initiative prediction model for survival in no-option chronic limb-threatening ischemia patients

Verwer, Maarten C., Wijnand, Joep G.J., Teraa, Martin, Gremmels, Hendrik, Simons, Jessica P., Conte, Michael S., Verhaar, Marianne C. & de Borst, Gert J.

Published: 01/01/2020


Chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI) is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. More than 50% of all CLTI patients die within 5 years after presentation. Patient-specific survival prediction is critical for informing treatment strategies, even for those without a clear option for revascularization. We validated a survival prediction model, developed in a revascularized Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) cohort, in a Western European no-option CLTI cohort.

The VQI survival prediction model was applied to the validation cohort (N = 150) to compare estimated mortality and observed mortality at 2 years after baseline. Performance of the VQI model was tested by evaluating discrimination using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

The 2-year survival rate was 79% in the validation cohort compared with 83% in the VQI cohort. Baseline characteristics were significantly different for 13 of 17 variables. The C statistic was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.95), which indicates good discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test had a P value of .30, which indicates good fit.

This is the first external validation of the VQI survival prediction model. The good model performance suggests that this model can be used in different CLTI populations, including no-option CLTI, and underlines its contributory role in this challenging population.

Full Access Link: Journal of Vascular Surgery